US Unlikely to Have Enough Vaccines to Stop Avian Flu

The 19 medical experts who attended the Pandefense 1.0 meeting in November gave a median estimate of a less than 1 percent chance that the U.S. will have adequate stockpiles of vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent a pandemic within the next three years. The same experts gave a median estimate of 15 percent for the probability that the avian flu virus will mutate into a strain that can spread efficiently by human-to-human contact within that time. Their median worst-case estimate of the number of people who would die, should that happen, was 6 million in the United States and 180 million worldwide. Their median best-case estimates were 500,000 dead in the United States and 20 million worldwide. (Source : Bird Flu News )

“It surprised me that they thought it was going to be this bad,” said Wandi Bruine De Bruin, lead author of the study and research faculty member in the Department of Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon.

The survey also included 17 non-medical experts from a variety of fields who were more pessimistic about the likelihood of human-to-human transmission, giving a median 60 percent chance that it would occur within three years. They did, however, have more faith in medical science, giving a median 15 percent chance of the United States having enough vaccine and a 30 percent chance that the nation would have enough antiviral medications to halt a pandemic.

“The medical experts’ estimates suggest this is a bigger risk than anything else we are facing,” said Baruch Fischhoff, a study co-author and the Howard Heinz University Professor of Social and Decision Sciences and Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon.

Both the medical and the non-medical experts agreed that the greatest hope for mitigating the effects of an avian flu outbreak among humans lies in heightened global surveillance and, should the virus become pandemic, hand washing, mask wearing and social distancing. Unfortunately, the efficacy of such strategies in preventing the spread of infectious diseases has not been extensively studied, Bruine de Bruin said. Although the federal government has expressed a commitment to open communication about these risks, its messages have not yet been scientifically evaluated, according to Fischhoff.

Bird flu has hit 55 countries, killed more than 500 people and seems to be spreading quickly, the U.N. official in charge of tracking the virus said Wednesday.

Dr. David Nabarro said the virus has led to the deaths of some 200 million birds and has impoverished millions of small poultry farmers.

Between 2003 and 2005 the virus was reported in 15 countries. But in the first four months of this year it has moved rapidly to 30 new countries, with major outbreaks in Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar, India, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Bukina Faso.

“I suspect we’re going to see further spread of H5N1 into other countries,” he said, referring to the deadly and virulent strain of the virus.

“This is very similar to the virus that caused the influenza pandemic of 1918,” Nabarro said. It’s not identical but it’s similar. … So therefore, the 1918 virus, which caused this huge pandemic associated with 40 million deaths, seems to have a successor waiting in the wings.”

Nabarro, the U.N.’s chief coordinator for avian influenza, spoke at a meeting organized by the United Nations Foundation on how to inform people around the world of the bird flu threat.

He said the H5N1 virus is known to have stricken more than 200 people, but it probably has affected “many, many more.”

Tom Cruse writes articles for Only Health

Do You Think the Political Parties Care?

 

Do you think NDC or NPP care about Ghanaians look at their record? NDC ruled Ghana for 8 years and NPP has also ruled for 8 years. Did any of them help to make Ghana a developed country? Did any of them solve the unemployment problem in Ghana? How about education and health? Look at the roads in Ghana. Do we deserve that? Any person who has been to Europe, Asia or America can say for sure that both major parties have not done much for Ghanaians.

Look at the state of Ghana’s manufacturing sector. What do we produce? Virtually nothing. What do we do with the cocoa that we produce? We only export the raw beans for peanuts. How about the gold and the diamond and the many minerals we mine? They are exported to Switzerland and Dubai before Ghanaians go there to buy the wedding rings and bracelets to sell to Ghanaians. Computers, cars, mobile phones, fridges are made in Europe, Japan and the US and it is affordable but Ghanaians cannot buy common chocolate even though the vital raw material which is cocoa is made here. And the same is true about gold and diamond. We cannot buy them even though they are mined right here.

Look at the state of the agricultural sector. How many of our farmers have their own tractors and farming equipments to produce beyond the level of subsistence? Virtually none. Virtually all the important equipments needed to make the agric sector viable and productive have to be imported and how many of our farmers have their own resources to buy even the basic machinery to expand their farms? Although we are in the 21st Century yet our farming practices indicate that we have still not moved beyond the 19th century. This is the more reason why we continue to hunger even though rich soils abound in Ghana. We under utilise our land for lack of political commitment.

Look at the policies of the two major parties and see if they can even put Ghana on the level of Korea, Taiwan or Hong Kong in the next 20 years. Ghanaian business men are frequenting Dubai and China importing every good you can think of. Investigate to find out how the Chinese and co did it and whether any of the parties can help Ghana do the same.

Look at the state of infrastructure in Ghana: roads, harbours, telecommunication, health, education, market and airport. We have neglected the few that Nkrumah built yet we have forgotten that no nation no matter the size of the natural resources that she has can develop without investing in infrastructure. That is why Democratic Republic of Congo has every mineral you can think of yet they are one of the poorest in the world. That is why Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong have developed and that is why President Elect Obama  is talking about building US infrastructures because they are the engines that run the economy. You cannot export if you do not have harbours and airports to support it. You cannot attract tourists if you do not have airport, hotels and other infrastructure that support it.

You cannot move goods from centres of production to centres of consumption if you do not have roads, rail lines and inland water infrastructure to deliver it. You cannot supply the industries with doctors, architects, bankers, lawyers, planners, engineers, teachers, nurses if you do not have the educational infrastructure to deliver it. And you cannot run an efficient and vibrant economy if you do not have the energy and telecommunication infrastructures in place. Ghana has been experiencing serious disruptions in the energy sector for years and no political party has seen any wisdom to solve. As a result factories are folding up and are laying off workers and we are waiting for nature to help fill Akosombo Dam before we rectify the problem. Can these do nothing approaches to problem solving help our nation? What are we doing with the abundance of sunshine in the country? We have not taken advantage of it, have we? We have sunshine 365 days and we have not tap into solar energy which is cheap and more reliable than hydro. It is another indication of the useless institutions that we have and lip service paid by the various political parties and their leaders to development. Look around yourselves and see if any of the goods you see are made in Ghana I mean the mobile phones, computers, televisions, cars and all the flashy things that Ghanaians are crazing for. It is sad to note that almost all the raw materials needed to build these phones, cars etc are obtained from Ghana and other African countries.

How about the state of the housing infrastructure? A visit to any village or town gives the same picture of poor housing and poor quality of public service. People are living in mud/thatched houses with bamboo leaf as roofing sheet with no electricity, potable water and clinics. They live in a subsistence environment without social security, health insurance and are condemned to poverty, desperation and hopelessness. Those living in urban areas are without jobs, without mortgage, and face high utility bills with poor service. They face constant barrage of water and energy disruptions everyday. In every region the situation is not different. On the other hand our MPs, ministers, vice president, the president, their cronies and families live in total luxury with mansions, SUVs, bodyguards, fat salaries, fat bonuses, house servants and they have all the resources of the state at their disposal. Yet they claim to be serving the people. How can it be?

And how about our education sector upon which the development of the nation rest? It is nothing to write home about. Isn’t it? Look at the world ranking of Universities and see where the first university falls. Can we afford to develop the nation with low quality graduates not to mention the millions of illiterates and semi-literates that roam around the country? Of the about 9,760 Accredited universities in the World, Ghana’s prominent universities including University of Ghana and Kwame Nkrumah University of ‘Science and Technology’ only managed to place 5,702 and 6,703 positions respectively in the World University Ranking. Even in Africa, our own backyard they only managed to secure 43rd and 63rd positions respectively.(Source: topuniversities.com) It is abundantly clear that our education system is not producing the architects, engineers, planners, bankers, lawyers, doctors, teachers, social workers, nurses and the scientists that we need in the 21st Century. That is why every major architectural and engineering activity in Ghana is undertaken by foreigners and foreign companies especially from USA, Japan, China, India and Europe. And any nation that depends on foreign expertise for her survival is doom to fail in the long run. The Universities lack well trained lecturers. They lack modern facilities such as state of the art libraries, laboratory simulation facilities, studios, computers, and books. They lack them because we cannot build them; we cannot build them because the curricula have not prepared our students to build them. As a result we have to import the equipments and books from countries that have done their home work well and have invested heavily in education notably in science and technology.

In many of our universities, Polytechnics and secondary schools lecturers/teachers are still teaching students the same way the 19th century academic institutions taught forgetting that we are in the 21st century. The same notes given a final year student four years ago are still being given to first year students with no addition and subtraction.  Lecturers cannot write books for students because they do not have the resources to carry out research that form the basis of any academic material.

Whereas students in advanced countries get their hands on books immediately they are released those in Ghana have to wait 4 years or even more to get the same books. What is more the academic facilities including libraries are in a state too appalling to describe. Not a single of our universities can boast of a million volumes of books in their libraries. Even the few books that they have are so old that information contained in them are useless. Very few books have been published by Ghanaians. Due to this most students have to rely on the notes that lecturers give them. This is state of our universities and the little I say about our Polytechnics and secondary schools the better. Our research institutions have achieved very little because they are underfunded and the researchers do not have the expertise and the facilities to carry out any meaningful research. A case in point is Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) located at New Tafo in the Eastern Region. Despite decades of its existence we still export raw cocoa beans for peanuts. No value has been added to the cocoa. CRIG has not been able to come up with other ways in which to use the beans to benefit Ghanaians despite the mounting evidence that the beans have several potential uses.

Apart from the few things Dr. Nkrumah did in his 9 years of administration virtually nothing has been added to it by the various governments who came after him neither the NDC, NPP nor PNC.

I can continue all day but it is a fact that both the NDC and NPP are bunches of hungry politicians with no concrete economic and social agenda to move Ghana beyond the level of importing used computers, used cars, used televisions, used underwear and any used thing you can think of. What are all these telling you about Ghana, the NPP, and the NDC? Do we have any option not to vote for them? Until we have leaders who have visions and are committed to industrialising Ghana beyond agro raw material production, Ghana will continue to be classified as a developing and poor country and even though we will continue to vote we will continue to wallow in abject poverty.

 

 

Lord Aikins Adusei

The Magnificent Egypt

Egypt is bordered by Libya on the west, Sudan on the south, & on Israel & Gaza Strip on the northeasterly. Egypt’s significant role in geopolitics stems from its strategical position: a transcontinental country, it possesses a land bridge (the Isthmus of Suez) betwixt Africa & Asia, that in turn is traversed by a navigable waterway (the Suez Canal) that connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea.

Towns & cities let in Alexandria, one of the great very old towns, Aswan, Asyut, Cairo, the contemporary Egyptian capital, El-Mahalla El-Kubra, Giza, the site of the Pyramid of Khufu, Hurghada, Port Safaga Luxor, Kom Ombo, Port Said, Sharm el Sheikh, Shubra-El-Khema, Suez, in which the Suez Canal is settled, Zagazig, & Al-Minya.

Deserts: Egypt admits parts of the Sahara Desert & of the Libyan Desert. Those deserts were referred to as the “red land” in very old Egypt, & they secure the Kingdom of the Pharaohs given by western threats. Oases admit: Bahariya Oasis, Dakhleh Oasis, Farafra Oasis, Kharga Oasis, Siwa Oasis. An oasis is a fertile or green region in the midst of a desert.

Egypt’s working capital city, Cairo, is Africa’s largest city & has been famous for centuries as a center of learning, culture & mercantilism. The Egyptian Academy of the Arabic Language is responsible for modulating the Arabic Language throughout the world.

Egypt has had a thriving media & arts industry from the late 19th century, in todays world with more than 30 satellite channels and over 100 motion pictures produced every year. Cairo in fact has long been acknowledge as the “Hollywood of the East.” To bolster its media industry further, especially with the keen contest from the Persian Gulf Arab States and Lebanon, a big media city was built.

When you travel to Egypt, there are so several sites that you will want to explore, the length of your voyage will never seem long enough! I frequently meet people, on my tours, that have been to Egypt additional than 15 times, & they keep returning to see something new! They ask about this newly discovered site, or some new tomb that has been recently unveiled, or even places that they have found out more people talk about! Here in Egypt, you will forever find new sites to travel to and have a good time in.

The adventure that is Egypt never ends! That is why it is a shame if you come to Egypt, particularly for the first time, and miss the grandiose sites, like the Pyramids of Giza, Abu Simbel or the west bank of Luxor, to name but two or three. In that location are so many travellers who fly direct to Upper Egypt to see Luxor & Aswan, hoping that they will be stumble through the Pyramids as well, and then they understand that they have to travel 720Km to Cairo, in which the Pyramids actually are, and end up paying $400 extra to travel and see one site, which is most likely about half of what they paid for their entire trip!

Plan well for your trip before you come. Advance planning is the right way to save up time, money and effort, & of course to ensure that you get to see the locates that you have been dream about for some time.

Try, as much as possible, to travel to as several of the places that your voyage will allow! In that location is nothing worse than going home & wishing you had travelled to somewhere you didn’t! We each know that you don’t get the opportunity to travel to Egypt day-after-day!

See the Promise in our Future

It is difficult to open a magazine or newspaper without seeing an article, if not several articles, on the subject of Barack Obama. His emergence as a Presidential candidate and on November 4, 2008 as President-Elect has captured the attention of the country and the world in a fashion never seen before. Even more surprising is the fact that almost half of the populace in America had never even heard of Barack Obama just two years ago.

Obama’s Background
Barack Obama was born in 1961 in Hawaii; his parents met while attending the University of Hawaii. Barack’s father, Barack Obama Sr., grew up in a small village in Kenya, and his mother, Ann Durham, was originally from Kansas. Obama attended Columbia University in New York and graduated in 1983, and later he went on to Harvard Law School, where he obtained his law degree.

Prior to his entry into politics, Obama worked as a community organizer, a civil rights lawyer and a professor of constitutional law. In 2004, Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate, and in February, 2007 announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States. Obama is married and has two daughters.

The Presidential Election
Originally, nine Democratic contenders for the candidacy were announced, but after a series of debates and other campaign activities, Senator Hilary Clinton, former Senator John Edwards and Senator Barack Obama emerged as the front-runners. Until early 2008, Clinton led in nationwide polls, but as the state primary elections began, public support for Obama eclipsed Clinton’s lead. During the same period, the twelve Republican contenders battled for their party’s nomination; Senator John McCain was confirmed as the Republican nominee in March of 2008.

On June 6, 2008, after a 17-month campaign against Clinton, Obama clinched the Democratic nomination. Clinton had characterized herself as the office-seeker with the most experience, while Obama positioned himself as the contender most able to bring much-needed change to Washington. This message was seen again during the course of the general election.

McCain adopted a very similar theme from the start in his campaign against Obama, painting himself as the war veteran with the experience necessary to succeed as President, while Obama continued to emphasize his message of much-needed change for the political system and the country as a whole. After a tumultuous campaign with the candidates’ every word immediately publicized and analyzed by the frenzied media, Barack Obama was elected to the position of President of the United States on November 4, 2008.

President Obama’s Future Challenges
President Obama inherits many formidable challenges: massive financial upheaval, staggering unemployment figures, and a domestic economy that is barely limping along. Additionally, an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq and rising unrest in the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict mean that Obama has a very full plate indeed. Despite this dismal outlook, he has started quickly assembling an Administration to stem the bleeding and repair the confidence of a shaken nation. President Obama’s message to the country includes encouraging choices to limit further damage in 2009 and, even as the hour is the darkest, to see the promise in our future.

For more information on Barack Obama, visit http://www.obamaaspresident.com.

(arindam Chaudhuri) – the Changing Face of Indian Politics: From Local Criminals to Global Terrorists

To any true blue American, I am sure that this imagination is inconceivable even in their wildest of dreams. Unfortunately, for an Indian, forget dreams, even in reality our sensitivity does not move an inch in the event of occurrence of a similar scenario, which is just about to happen in India. It is nothing but most disgraceful that while our faint hope (or hollow rhetoric, if you will) of cleansing the extant Indian political system is wilting in front of our eyes, we are letting it happen as thoroughly hypocrite spectators. It comes as a blatant slap on the face of the already fractured judicial system and fragmented political structure that an extradited underworld don, Abu Salem, who is accountable for plotting and murdering hundreds of people in one of the most gruesome blasts in Mumbai in 1993, has the audacity to join politics, by contesting in the impending Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. More pathetic were the ‘arrogantly shameless’ statements that were scripted in posters in Mubarakpur promoting Salem’s candidature (Hum pakke Hind hain, seene mein sher ka dil rakhe hai, agar saath mila aapka to rukh toofan ka more sakte hain, vatan ki abru bachayenge, hum ek khushal Bharat banayenge).
The more I read this, the more I’m bewildered by the audacity of the man, an audacity which arises from our very own home-grown apathy.But then there is nothing surprising as Indian politics anyway was always a haven for criminals (According to reports, almost one-quarter of the over 540 people elected to Parliament in 2004 face criminal charges). But in this editorial, I am not referring to just any other petty criminal. Here, I am talking about a person who has been accused of being one of the masterminds and has been held responsible for the logistics and cold blooded execution of one of the biggest serial blasts in India, which not only killed hundreds of innocent people, but its aftershocks culminated into blood-spattered communal riots (wherein there was a complete massacre of countless people that once again brought back memories of almost forgotten wounds, the sense of constant suspicion and recurrent insecurity). I reiterate, I am talking about a man for whom the CBI spent three torturous years of sleepless nights and won one of the best executed cases in history; and that too against the established lawyers of Europe. This is the same man who has been on a run for years, and who even had plastic surgery done to conceal his identity. And when that man today conceitedly claims to have substance in him to lead a country of a billion, the popular media, which is assumed to be the conscience keeper of the common man, has willingly and deplorably underplayed this grave news by carrying it in the inside pages in form of a tiny story – this sufficiently indicates that there is something inherently and terribly wrong with our sense of ethics and justice.My anger is not against Abu Salem merely, for I know that he is just another coward who is following suit like his predecessor politicians in order to save his neck. My anger is also against the very lawyers who actually advised him to get into politics. Shame that they call themselves lawyers!
My irritation is against the silence of the polity and even the Election Commission, which never spares an opportunity to showcase whatever little it has achieved. My anger is directed against this deafening silence, which is holding each and every citizen to ransom.What more, amidst this conspiracy of silence – of the polity, the regulator and media – unmindful of probity and morality, dangerous political parties like Apna Dal (This is the same party that has supported Bablu Srivastava, another mafia don, and thankfully lost in the last Lok Sabha elections) are eager to associate themselves with Salem and reap political capital (cheap publicity) out of this issue. The party president, Sonelal Patel, has blatantly stated that his party is open and not averse to promote Dawood Ibrahim and other criminals as well, if they abandon the crime path and aspire to do social service by joining politics. If not for the grave consequences upon an under-developed state like Uttar Pradesh in particular and Indian polity in general, this entire episode would be achingly amusing!Well known sociologist Max Weber had lamented that ‘freedom and democracy are only possible where the resolute will of a nation not to allow itself to be ruled like sheep is permanently alive.’ USA celebrated this month for having crossed the 300 million population mark; ironically, around 300 million Indians live below the poverty line. The will seems dead, freedom further so, and if illiteracy, unemployment and poverty are all that our criminal politicians have been able to provide the majority of our countrymen till date, pray tell me what democratic difference remains between us “intellectuals” and Max’s sheep?

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